War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".